Covid Experts

[Oldfellah]

Im getting sick of all these so called "Experts" predicting about Covid saying that we will have X amount of cases if we do this and that. So far none of these so called predictions have ever eventuated as far as Im aware, whats your opinion on them?

Especially Michael Baker he is a real prophet of doom, I bet he is fun at parties. 

[king1]

Pretty sure it's a bit more informed than a prediction, they will probably be using computer modelling, statistical analysis, that kind of thing. It may be like weather forecasting perhaps, not a perfect science.. and he still has a job so that would suggest he is correct more often than wrong... .

[crafters_corner]

Well, with not much recent (like decades) data with a major pandemic of this sort, then surely we can forgive them for not knowing everything that there is to know.

We have no idea of how covid could get away from us, and run rampant, because at the moment, what we/they are doing, is working.

We are lucky that we live where we do, because over in Europe, they are not doing so well.

[Olive]

Im getting sick of all these so called "Experts" predicting about Covid saying that we will have X amount of cases if we do this and that. So far none of these so called predictions have ever eventuated as far as Im aware, whats your opinion on them?

Especially Michael Baker he is a real prophet of doom, I bet he is fun at parties. 

You need to educate yourself about epidemiology and computer modelling. They are not just guessing.   Epidemiology is not an exact science because of the many variables and unknowns.  The actual experts are not making predictions, they are telling us what are the most likely outcomes in various sets of circumstances, and the Cabinet has the weighty task of deciding what is the safest way forward in a world in which unknowns sometimes dominate and people's lives are at stake.  

I have enormous respect and admiration for Professor Baker.   In the middle of a lethal global pandemic "fun at parties" is a pretty shallow insult.

[yousnoozeyoulose]

Luckily, their alarming predictions never seem to come true because the conditions that the predictions rely on are never provided thanks to pesky Government intervention, inherent human behaviour, etc.

[Oh_hunnihunni]

Real world events rarely match predictions, but the fact is without predictions we would be unprepared.

I know the weather report is rarely right, but it allows me to plan. Without it my life would be even less predictable.

And we all do it.

[harm_less]

I read Laurie Garrett's book 'The Coming Plague' back in the mid 1990s. Plenty in that tome that could be construed as doomsaying but as it turns out she was right on the money on many points including the occurrence of a worldwide viral epidemic driven by rampant international travel, population density of large cities, unwise laboratory activity, misuse of available pharmaceuticals and dietary pressures encroaching on wilderness areas and wild species. Population's compliance with health measures in any outbreak isn't new either as her references to historic disease control efforts attest. It's just more difficult to implement best practice health measures in our current climate of social media interconnectedness.

Following her on Twitter during the course of COVID19 she is still backing the right run of events though she did admit that the one thing that did catch her out was the US's inept handling of their response to the virus over the course of the Trump presidency.

[Lilith7]

There's a huge amount of misinformation around & many have been caught up by it. I'd failed to realise that so many Kiwis could actually believe such stuff so it came as quite a surprise.

Its difficult to know the best way of dealing with those who've bought into it, so for those trying to cope with those people it must be like walking on eggshells.



https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/...abbit-hole

ÔÇ£I canÔÇÖt stress this enough. The social fabric of New Zealand is being tested and threatened daily, in ways that are historically unprecedented,ÔÇØ Hattotuwa says.

ÔÇ£You have here, and for the first time with this voracity and increasing violence, an issue that has been brewing in other parts of the world. It is here, and it is a hellscape.ÔÇØ

Covid-19 conspiracy theories and mis- and disinformation have increased exponentially since August 17, when Auckland went into level 4 lockdown.

By now, everyone knows someone who has fallen down the rabbit hole. No-one seems immune. Journalist and former Franklin County News editor Rex Warwood was spreading anti-Covid misinformation on his Facebook page shortly before dying from the illness last week."

[Oldfellah]

Im getting sick of all these so called "Experts" predicting about Covid saying that we will have X amount of cases if we do this and that. So far none of these so called predictions have ever eventuated as far as Im aware, whats your opinion on them?

Especially Michael Baker he is a real prophet of doom, I bet he is fun at parties. 

You need to educate yourself about epidemiology and computer modelling. They are not just guessing.   Epidemiology is not an exact science because of the many variables and unknowns.  The actual experts are not making predictions, they are telling us what are the most likely outcomes in various sets of circumstances, and the Cabinet has the weighty task of deciding what is the safest way forward in a world in which unknowns sometimes dominate and people's lives are at stake.  

I have enormous respect and admiration for Professor Baker.   In the middle of a lethal global pandemic "fun at parties" is a pretty shallow insult.

Im too old to educate myself thanks Olive, I leave it up to people like you.
Modelling prepared for the Ardern government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 COVID-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed.

I think that was a bit of a guess and a scare to get people jabbed and as for being shallow ... yup thats me get over it! I didnt insult anyone, its not allowed on here

[Olive]

There's a huge amount of misinformation around & many have been caught up by it. I'd failed to realise that so many Kiwis could actually believe such stuff so it came as quite a surprise.

Its difficult to know the best way of dealing with those who've bought into it, so for those trying to cope with those people it must be like walking on eggshells.



https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/...abbit-hole

ÔÇ£I canÔÇÖt stress this enough. The social fabric of New Zealand is being tested and threatened daily, in ways that are historically unprecedented,ÔÇØ Hattotuwa says.

ÔÇ£You have here, and for the first time with this voracity and increasing violence, an issue that has been brewing in other parts of the world. It is here, and it is a hellscape.ÔÇØ

Covid-19 conspiracy theories and mis- and disinformation have increased exponentially since August 17, when Auckland went into level 4 lockdown.

By now, everyone knows someone who has fallen down the rabbit hole. No-one seems immune. Journalist and former Franklin County News editor Rex Warwood was spreading anti-Covid misinformation on his Facebook page shortly before dying from the illness last week."

The conspiracy theories are equally horrifying and risible. We have lost a few family members and friends down the rabbit hole, and especially upsetting is their simultaneous embrace of white supremacy and misogyny. I just don't think about them any more as it's too distressing.

[king1]

You need to educate yourself about epidemiology and computer modelling. They are not just guessing.   Epidemiology is not an exact science because of the many variables and unknowns.  The actual experts are not making predictions, they are telling us what are the most likely outcomes in various sets of circumstances, and the Cabinet has the weighty task of deciding what is the safest way forward in a world in which unknowns sometimes dominate and people's lives are at stake.  

I have enormous respect and admiration for Professor Baker.   In the middle of a lethal global pandemic "fun at parties" is a pretty shallow insult.

Im too old to educate myself thanks Olive, I leave it up to people like you.
Modelling prepared for the Ardern government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 COVID-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed. 

only time will provide a definitive answer to that one @Oldfellah.   It could go either way, but if there are 1000s of deaths/year we know he was right and the modelling work done was correctly - if not well a lot of lives have been saved, so a win win all round I would say...

[TygerTung]

At least it isn't as bad as the modelling suggests it could be.

[Oh_hunnihunni]

Can I just correct a piece of misinformation in this thread please - the bit about being too old to learn.

So long as we have a working brain we can learn. It isn't age stopping us, it is ego. It is refusal. It is choice.

And it is really silly, because learning staves off cognitive decline, reduces dementia, and extends life. I know this because I did my post grad academic thesis on the subject. In my sixties.

So please, stop using the phrase 'too old'. We are only too old when we are dead.

[bryalea]

Im too old to educate myself thanks Olive, I leave it up to people like you.
Modelling prepared for the Ardern government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 COVID-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed. 

only time will provide a definitive answer to that one @Oldfellah.   It could go either way, but if there are 1000s of deaths/year we know he was right and the modelling work done was correctly - if not well a lot of lives have been saved, so a win win all round I would say...

We have had 12,000 cases and 44 deaths. So google says. So if we have say 40 per 10,000 cases going forward thats 400/100,000. So it depends on how well the vaccines work, how long the immune response lasts, how quickly it spreads, how many variants arrive... lots of stuff. I wonder what happens with people with long covid that die going forward. How they count them in.. or not. 

[Lilith7]

Can I just correct a piece of misinformation in this thread please - the bit about being too old to learn.

So long as we have a working brain we can learn. It isn't age stopping us, it is ego. It is refusal. It is choice.

And it is really silly, because learning staves off cognitive decline, reduces dementia, and extends life. I know this because I did my post grad academic thesis on the subject. In my sixties.

So please, stop using the phrase 'too old'. We are only too old when we are dead.

True, that. I learned dance in my 50's & went to art school in my 60's, & had I been able to do the final year would have a B A for the effort. And what's more, if the chance to learn something which interests me presents itself, I might just do more learning. 

Apparently I'm 'not allowed to die' so might need something to do....

[Oh_hunnihunni]

You should pick up those final papers and complete it. It lets us keep even with the grandchildren, lol.

[Lilith7]

You should pick up those final papers and complete it. It lets us keep even with the grandchildren, lol.

Nah I was too knackered - & poor - by the end of the third year.

[Kay2021]

Can I just correct a piece of misinformation in this thread please - the bit about being too old to learn.

So long as we have a working brain we can learn. It isn't age stopping us, it is ego. It is refusal. It is choice.

And it is really silly, because learning staves off cognitive decline, reduces dementia, and extends life. I know this because I did my post grad academic thesis on the subject. In my sixties.

So please, stop using the phrase 'too old'. We are only too old when we are dead.

Yep right up to the last breath

[dken31]

Modeling is as reliable as the assumptions you build into them, which is to say that they are essentially pure guesswork. I do modelling (of the financial variety) as part of my work and a small tweak to the inputs/assumptions can make a huge difference to the resulting predictions. Which is great when you need the modelling to arrive at a specific answer, but makes them nest to useless as a genuine predictive tool.

Almost all of the Covid related modelling (cases, deaths, hospitalisations, ICU utilisation etc.) has proven to have been wildly overblown. All of the NZ government's go-to modelers seem to be associated with/use the work of Imperial College London/Neil Ferguson, who has an abysmal track record of predicting or modeling pandemic outcomes.

[king1]

Modeling is as reliable as the assumptions you build into them, which is to say that they are essentially pure guesswork.  I do modelling (of the financial variety) as part of my work and a small tweak to the inputs/assumptions can make a huge difference to the resulting predictions.  Which is great when you need the modelling to arrive at a specific answer, but makes them nest to useless as a genuine predictive tool.

Almost all of the Covid related modelling (cases, deaths, hospitalisations, ICU utilisation etc.) has proven to have been wildly overblown.  All of the NZ government's go-to modelers seem to be associated with/use the work of Imperial College London/Neil Ferguson, who has an abysmal track record of predicting or modeling pandemic outcomes.

on the side of caution works well for me...