The Coster Gambit.

[Praktica]

https://frankmacskasy.substack.com/p/the...sioner?s=r

[Olive]

I don't think it's any great revelation, it seemed fairly obvious what Coster was preparing for, but nonetheless it's good to have it spelt out for the doubters.

[Praktica]

Yes, I got the feeling that Coster was playing this the way Macskasy described - but it was surprising listening to the yowling of those who didn't understand.

[Magoo]

hmmmm methinks its easy to look back and call costers action cunning.
full points to five-o for clearing the scum out.
but it would have been far more cunning to have police numbers on the ground before the animals make camp not after.
we've all heard the commitment and antisocial practices of the antivax movement. the occupation was no surprise.
it was a slow moving convoy, not a blitzkrieg.
why would a convoy heading towards wellington be any different to the convoy in canada at arrival of their destination.?
did the police think they were going to toddle off to the nearest top 10 campground to bbq some sausages when they were finished marching?

putting the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff waiting for someone to fall off could be classed as cunning, but putting up a fence along the top of the cliff to prevent it displays more common sense.

[Praktica]

Magoo - your suggestion doesn't give the protestors time to totally discredit themselves, their supposed leaders, and the issues they claimed to be concerned about. Now, any government action against protests on any of these issues, will have majority support.

[Magoo]

Magoo - your suggestion doesn't give the protestors time to totally discredit themselves, their supposed leaders, and the issues they claimed to be concerned about. Now, any government action against protests on any of these issues, will have majority support.

yes i agree, however waiting for a rabble to discredit themselves could have gone either way, its a dangerous game we were forced to play and not a choice, which is what pre-emptive policing might have achieved.
Suspending the rule of law to assuage public relations with a violent minority also seems counter intuitive.

the next lot that protest might present a cohesive front, and with a little more discipline and leadership could remain indefinitely, as it was ultimately the lack of discipline that got this lot. if hearts and minds had gotten behind the protest things would be different today.

---

I don't think it's any great revelation, it seemed fairly obvious what Coster was preparing for, but nonetheless it's good to have it spelt out for the doubters.

Coster had to prepare for the options that remained after allowing the encampment to get established.
which were few. sitting on his hands and doing nothing was one tactic, which we now call a cunning plan, but hardly proactive policing.

---

Magoo - your suggestion doesn't give the protestors time to totally discredit themselves, their supposed leaders, and the issues they claimed to be concerned about. Now, any government action against protests on any of these issues, will have majority support.

then why are the protesters still camped out in that park in Christchurch or Invercargill or wherever it is?
the council wont act without the police, and the police refuse to help.
nothing being done by the government at all.
where is public opinion now?. will the citizens around that park have to wait until everyone else is pissed off too before something gets done.?
i see no evidence of anyone using this new found majority of support to help those people.
which belies the theory that waiting is the best way forward. it was all that was left.

---

dont just take my word for it.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/4617...-illegally

[ObeWan]

The Coster Gambit?

Bullshit!

One of the last questions Tame put to him in the first interview was:
ÔÇ£How does this play out, how does it end?ÔÇØ
Costers answer was: ÔÇ£ I donÔÇÖt knowÔÇØ.
Tame pressed him again: ÔÇ£You dont know?ÔÇØ

If he had a strategy, a plan, a gambit in place at that point┬áor┬áeven if he wanted to send a subtle message to the protesters wouldnÔÇÖt his answer to that question have been more along the lines of:

ÔÇ£We, are monitoring activities among the camp┬ávery closely and if things continue to escalate or if┬áwe see an increase in illegal activity or if there is a real danger to the Wellington public┬áwe will need to reassess what is required from us.ÔÇØ

Would have been a damm sight more forceful than ÔÇ£I dont knowÔÇØ.
I bet the protesters were quivering in fear hearing that.

CosterÔÇÖs gambit?┬á
Pffft!!

[Magoo]

The Coster Gambit?

Bullshit!

One of the last questions Tame put to him in the first interview was:
ÔÇ£How does this play out, how does it end?ÔÇØ
Costers answer was: ÔÇ£ I donÔÇÖt knowÔÇØ.
Tame pressed him again: ÔÇ£You dont know?ÔÇØ

If he had a strategy, a plan, a gambit in place at that point┬áor┬áeven if he wanted to send a subtle message to the protesters wouldnÔÇÖt his answer to that question have been more along the lines of:

ÔÇ£We, are monitoring activities among the camp┬ávery closely and if things continue to escalate or if┬áwe see an increase in illegal activity or if there is a real danger to the Wellington public┬áwe will need to reassess what is required from us.ÔÇØ

Would have been a damm sight more forceful than ÔÇ£I dont knowÔÇØ.
I bet the protesters were quivering in fear hearing that.

CosterÔÇÖs gambit?┬á
Pffft!!

yes, i fear he used the only options left to him after the initial occupation, which was do nothing.
this he did with startling aplomb for three weeks. his hand was forced by public opinion after all, either move them or we'll move you.

[Lilith7]

I think it was giving the protesters sufficient rope to hang themselves - some of the behaviour, such as using the cenotaph to support a shower or loo & writing on it, throwing crap at police & abusing passersby meant that any sympathy the general public may have had for them vanished rapidly.
Whether that was deliberately planned by police or just the way it turned out, we might never know.

[Oh_hunnihunni]

I think he knew time was running out politically... The silent majority were starting to mutter.

[king1]

I still say the government were calling the shots when it came down to it ...

[Wainuiguy]

The Coster Gambit?

Bullshit!

One of the last questions Tame put to him in the first interview was:
ÔÇ£How does this play out, how does it end?ÔÇØ
Costers answer was: ÔÇ£ I donÔÇÖt knowÔÇØ.
Tame pressed him again: ÔÇ£You dont know?ÔÇØ

If he had a strategy, a plan, a gambit in place at that point┬áor┬áeven if he wanted to send a subtle message to the protesters wouldnÔÇÖt his answer to that question have been more along the lines of:

ÔÇ£We, are monitoring activities among the camp┬ávery closely and if things continue to escalate or if┬áwe see an increase in illegal activity or if there is a real danger to the Wellington public┬áwe will need to reassess what is required from us.ÔÇØ

Would have been a damm sight more forceful than ÔÇ£I dont knowÔÇØ.
I bet the protesters were quivering in fear hearing that.

CosterÔÇÖs gambit?┬á
Pffft!!

Have to agree - a good plan would have been to be prepared for the occupation - clearly they weren't and considering you could see them coming and they had already stated an occupation was what they were going to do be either didn't think they would do it or didn't think it would last as long as it did.  Either was he looked weak and unprepared.

[Oh_hunnihunni]

No plan survives a riot.

[king1]

The Coster Gambit?

Bullshit!

One of the last questions Tame put to him in the first interview was:
ÔÇ£How does this play out, how does it end?ÔÇØ
Costers answer was: ÔÇ£ I donÔÇÖt knowÔÇØ.
Tame pressed him again: ÔÇ£You dont know?ÔÇØ

If he had a strategy, a plan, a gambit in place at that point┬áor┬áeven if he wanted to send a subtle message to the protesters wouldnÔÇÖt his answer to that question have been more along the lines of:

ÔÇ£We, are monitoring activities among the camp┬ávery closely and if things continue to escalate or if┬áwe see an increase in illegal activity or if there is a real danger to the Wellington public┬áwe will need to reassess what is required from us.ÔÇØ

Would have been a damm sight more forceful than ÔÇ£I dont knowÔÇØ.
I bet the protesters were quivering in fear hearing that.

CosterÔÇÖs gambit?┬á
Pffft!!

i'm not so sure - if one did want to lull protesters/occupiers into a false sense of security, then a response of "I don't know" is probably the only response one could give...

[ObeWan]

The Coster Gambit?

Bullshit!

One of the last questions Tame put to him in the first interview was:
ÔÇ£How does this play out, how does it end?ÔÇØ
Costers answer was: ÔÇ£ I donÔÇÖt knowÔÇØ.
Tame pressed him again: ÔÇ£You dont know?ÔÇØ

If he had a strategy, a plan, a gambit in place at that point┬áor┬áeven if he wanted to send a subtle message to the protesters wouldnÔÇÖt his answer to that question have been more along the lines of:

ÔÇ£We, are monitoring activities among the camp┬ávery closely and if things continue to escalate or if┬áwe see an increase in illegal activity or if there is a real danger to the Wellington public┬áwe will need to reassess what is required from us.ÔÇØ

Would have been a damm sight more forceful than ÔÇ£I dont knowÔÇØ.
I bet the protesters were quivering in fear hearing that.

CosterÔÇÖs gambit?┬á
Pffft!!

i'm not so sure - if one did want to lull protesters/occupiers into a false sense of security, then a response of "I don't know" is probably the only response one could give...

Maybe.
But doesnÔÇÖt the ÔÇ£false sense of securityÔÇØ theory fall thru the floor a little when we know the protesters knew exactly the time and day┬áwhen the cops were coming?
There were ripples running thru the camp and they were up and prepared for it at 3.30am.

[Praktica]

i'm not so sure - if one did want to lull protesters/occupiers into a false sense of security, then a response of "I don't know" is probably the only response one could give...

Maybe.
But doesnÔÇÖt the ÔÇ£false sense of securityÔÇØ theory fall thru the floor a little when we know the protesters knew exactly the time and day┬áwhen the cops were coming?
There were ripples running thru the camp and they were up and prepared for it at 3.30am.

Some of the protestors were staying hotels near the protest, and noticed the police arriving. The protestors had no time to get extra people to the protest, though, before they were booted out. The "false sense of security" was over the days before the end.

[Magoo]

well he was lucky it finished as it did
or i would have dubbed it
costers last stand