Latest poll out: Labour v National

[king1]

any seasoned politician will tell you it's only the vote on the day that counts.  One less than favourable result isn't exactly the kind of cataclysmic collapse that National suffered - it's a non-event...

But what trend is showing?  I can almost guarantee that there are a few worried conversations being had in Labour circles.  Is this why 3 Waters was delayed?

None, trends require more than one sample, come back to us when there's been 3 or 4 or 5 polls,  when it's all been bad news for labour, that would be a trend... 

You will remember what that looked like? same thing that happened to National before they lost the country- although that was probably 10, 12,14 polls in a row... 

I think if anything in the Labour circles, there might have been an eyebrow raised  by 3 or 4 degrees

[Wainuiguy]

But what trend is showing?  I can almost guarantee that there are a few worried conversations being had in Labour circles.  Is this why 3 Waters was delayed?

None, trends require more than one sample, come back to us when there's been 3 or 4 or 5 polls,  when it's all been bad news for labour, that would be a trend... 

You will remember what that looked like? same thing that happened to National before they lost the country- although that was probably 10, 12,14 polls in a row... 

I think if anything in the Labour circles, there might have been an eyebrow raised  by 3 or 4 degrees

There Has been.  That trend from the last 6 months has labour and the Greens dropping.

[Wainuiguy]

More bad news for Labour in latest RM poll - National Act now 6% ahead of Labour/Greens.  Though those numbers for Act look a little high potentially.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8889-n...2201310600

[yousnoozeyoulose]

And yet another poll, this time from Newshub/Reid Research. There's always bad news for someone, and this time it's ACT.

Labour 44.3 (+1.6)
National 31.3 (+4.4)
Greens 9.6 (+2.4)
ACT 8 (-8)

Ardern 43.3, Luxon 17.8, Seymour 7.9

[Lilith7]

And yet another poll, this time from Newshub/Reid Research. There's always bad news for someone, and this time it's ACT.

Labour 44.3 (+1.6)
National 31.3 (+4.4)
Greens 9.6 (+2.4)
ACT 8 (-8)

Ardern 43.3, Luxon 17.8, Seymour 7.9

I can't say I'm sorry to see ACT drop a bit - while I agree with their EOL bill there's really nothing else in their policies to admire, imo.
Mind you, polls aren't always an indication of anything much, either.

[Olive]

8Lilith7

"I can't say I'm sorry to see ACT drop a bit - while I agree with their EOL bill there's really nothing else in their policies to admire, imo.
Mind you, polls aren't always an indication of anything much, either."

I agree, especially about ACT.   But this poll is a welcome confirmation that the recent hard right activism has had no effect on the Government's support.   And I dare say the hilarious truckers' convoy will be regarded by most of us as light entertainment.

[Lilith7]

8Lilith7

"I can't say I'm sorry to see ACT drop a bit - while I agree with their EOL bill there's really nothing else in their policies to admire, imo.
Mind you, polls aren't always an indication of anything much, either."

I agree, especially about ACT.   But this poll is a welcome confirmation that the recent hard right activism has had no effect on the Government's support.   And I dare say the hilarious truckers' convoy will be regarded by most of us as light entertainment.

Apparently a few people have been having some fun misdirecting the truckers & giving them some 'alternative' music to listen to; fairly sure those responsible were hugely entertained!

[Rumpelteazer]

The longer they can be lulled into a sense of complacency the greater the shock will be be on election night.

[Wainuiguy]

And yet another poll, this time from Newshub/Reid Research. There's always bad news for someone, and this time it's ACT.

Labour 44.3 (+1.6)
National 31.3 (+4.4)
Greens 9.6 (+2.4)
ACT 8 (-8)

Ardern 43.3, Luxon 17.8, Seymour 7.9

Reid research tend to be all over the place mainly as they are both phone and internet based rather than purely phone based.  Certainly I can see them lose 4% to National - but not likely those who would vote for Act would then channel their vote to Greehns and Labour.

[yousnoozeyoulose]

If the poll numbers represented reality, then you'd assume that a bunch of ACT voters turned Nat, and another bunch of Nat voters turned Lab/Green. But of course it ain't reality - it's just a semi-relatable bunch of numbers. The results should be weighted, so respondents from hard-to-find groups will be given a little more value compared to retired white people for example, and that can easily cause volatility in results.

But to be honest, any poll of the general public that involves the internet is usually given a little asterisk in my head, simply because it involves a self-selecting sample and that's a bad thing. They're most likely coming from a panel of respondents (i.e. a bunch of email addresses), and it would naive to think that parties with a vested interest in the result wouldn't diddle the system a little. Similarly, mental asterisks for any news show text poll or web poll where the results are dictated by a similar thinking audience.

Ultimately, as much as I hate cold-calling, you do get a far more representative sample that way even if it annoys the bejesus out of everyone.

[Lilith7]

Polls tend to be dodgy things though.

[yousnoozeyoulose]

Polls are like taking a photo. If you try taking the same photo a few days later, it's going to look different.

[Lilith7]

Polls are like taking a photo. If you try taking the same photo a few days later, it's going to look different.

Exactly - people change their views with time.

[yousnoozeyoulose]

They're indicative fun with numbers, adding a little pointless spice to a news cycle. The decorative paprika if you will.

[Wainuiguy]

And another - though this one has not been widely published:

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8892-...2202072332

National 35% up3.5% since December
Labour 33% down 2.5%
Act 13% - down 5%
Greens 10 up 2%
Maori Party 2.5%
NZFirst 2.5%

[Wainuiguy]

Another poll out today showing continued troubling trends for Labour.  While they were up slightly  National's result surged ahead and while still not enough for a National/Act government the margin between the 2 blocks has continued to narrow.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politic...d-act-down

[Olive]

You are not making sense.

[Lilith7]

"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern remained well-ahead on 38.9 per cent up 1.4.

ACT leader David Seymour lost ground here as well ÔÇô six points to 2.4 per cent, not far above NZ First leader Winston Peters on 1.8 per cent."


Luxon sounds extremely similar to John Key, not at all keen of helping those who are struggling - unless of course they happen to be business owners.


ÔÇ£The modern conservative is engaged in one of manÔÇÖs oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.ÔÇØ
John Kenneth Galbraith

[Wainuiguy]

You are not making sense.

[Removed: Rule 2A]

Labour are moving around within the margins of error - essentially static while National continue to climb - 10% in under 6 months.  As costs continue to bite middle NZ more and more will start to move their support away from Labour.

---

"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern remained well-ahead on 38.9 per cent up 1.4.

ACT leader David Seymour lost ground here as well ÔÇô six points to 2.4 per cent, not far above NZ First leader Winston Peters on 1.8 per cent."


Luxon sounds extremely similar to John Key, not at all keen of helping those who are struggling - unless of course they happen to be business owners.


ÔÇ£The modern conservative is engaged in one of manÔÇÖs oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.ÔÇØ
John Kenneth Galbraith

Well that number for Ardern would be mighty impressive - if we voted for  PM to lead us.  We don't.  We vote for an electorate and a party.

Oh and to add - why wouldn't a party support business owners?  Small and medium businesses are the heart of NZ and employ hundreds of thousands of workers.  I guess if you are against business owner support you must have been livid with Labour and the wage subsidies during lockdowns.

[Oldfellah]

Of course Luxon sounds like Key, they are buddies and it was Key nudging Luxon all the way , two peas in a pod.