Opinion Polls

[Rumpelteazer]

It was towards the end of July when the last polls from Colmar Brunton or Reid Research were published.   I had been expecting to see another poll long before this and I wonder why one has not emerged.
I know there have been leadership changes and other significant events which may have lead pollsters to delay their research but this should not have been such a hindrance in my opinion.   I am starting to wonder if the results they are getting are so significantly different to the last polls that they are hesitant to release them and are going back checking their polling.

I know that the only poll that counts is the one on election day and that other polls can be frustratingly inaccurate leading to Jim Bolger's famous outburst "Bugger the Pollsters!"

Will we get more polls soon?    What are your thoughts?

[crab2]

I reckon there will be one at the beginning of October

[thephoenix]

You'd think there would be one out next week. We only seem to be getting leaked internal polling at the moment which are about as reliable as a sundial at midnight.

It's not a cheap exercise to do a halfway decent political poll especially if you're trying to get a good spread of responders (young people don't tend to have landlines these days). TV3/Newshub aren't exactly flush with cash these days so they've got to be a bit economical when it comes to commissioning polls.

If they wanted to save money, I'd hazard a guess that the gap between Labour and National has closed - it always does. Greens will be just above 5%. ACT doing well enough for Seymour to bring a bunch in with him - possibly not as well as they could be doing if National has stolen back some of their voters. NZ First wobbling around under 5%, once again relying on an election day miracle. Ardern will be streets ahead on preferred PM, which is always the dumbest thing to ask because inevitably the preferred PM is the one who is the PM.

[thephoenix]

Not a nationwide poll, but always interesting when there's no incumbent.

Auckland Central
================
Helen White (L) - 42.3%
Emma Mellow (N) - 26.6%
Chloe Swarbrick (G) - 24.2%

Party votes -
Labour - 56.2%
National - 23.1%
Greens - 12.1%
Act - 3.9%
NZ First - 1.6%
TOP - 1.4%

[thephoenix]

TV1 poll tonight!

Will be released before the debate, where we shall see Ardern bang on incessantly about Covid and Collins make snarky comments.

[Rumpelteazer]

Didn't David do well!

[thephoenix]

It's almost like they're a real party now!

Wonder if their rise has something to do with the divisive Collins. There's no middle ground with her, you like her or you think she's a clown, so that might explain the few % drift to a somewhat normal politician in Seymour.

Can't see Winston making it back this time round. The retirement slippers beckon.