It seems to me that a large part of ACT's rise in the polls is at the expense of National's voter base. So long as ACT, and for that matter NZ First, keep cannabalising that sector of the electorate I suspect that Labour/Green are looking safe.
The other factor worth noting is how the polls are conducted. If they are largely reliant on telephone polling then those polls will be weighted in favour of older voters who are predominant in National's, NZ First's (and by association ACT's) catchment as the older demographic are far more likely to still have a land line. Such polls are therefore going to be more reflective of the Nat/ACT/NZF leaning part of our population. Biases present in some pollsters also will have their effect on the results gained. You only have to witness the thinly veiled vitriol in much of our media coverage to realise the continuing generation of 'click bait' in preference to facts prevalent in those information streams, and of course social media echo chambers.
As is often said "The only poll that counts is the one on voting day", so little point in arguing the 'what ifs' based on what is likely to be erroneous data. Just wait until October 15th when the results will more accurately reflect what effect the election campaign has had on our next government.
The other factor worth noting is how the polls are conducted. If they are largely reliant on telephone polling then those polls will be weighted in favour of older voters who are predominant in National's, NZ First's (and by association ACT's) catchment as the older demographic are far more likely to still have a land line. Such polls are therefore going to be more reflective of the Nat/ACT/NZF leaning part of our population. Biases present in some pollsters also will have their effect on the results gained. You only have to witness the thinly veiled vitriol in much of our media coverage to realise the continuing generation of 'click bait' in preference to facts prevalent in those information streams, and of course social media echo chambers.
As is often said "The only poll that counts is the one on voting day", so little point in arguing the 'what ifs' based on what is likely to be erroneous data. Just wait until October 15th when the results will more accurately reflect what effect the election campaign has had on our next government.
(05-06-2023, 12:00 PM)C_T_Russell Wrote: ......Like the First Past The Post electoral system, and parties elected under that basis controlling inflation by banning price rises. Oh, the good old days eh!
I wish we could have the old NZ back like we used to as kids, was even better in my parents generation growing up in the 60s