08-02-2022, 02:18 PM
If the poll numbers represented reality, then you'd assume that a bunch of ACT voters turned Nat, and another bunch of Nat voters turned Lab/Green. But of course it ain't reality - it's just a semi-relatable bunch of numbers. The results should be weighted, so respondents from hard-to-find groups will be given a little more value compared to retired white people for example, and that can easily cause volatility in results.
But to be honest, any poll of the general public that involves the internet is usually given a little asterisk in my head, simply because it involves a self-selecting sample and that's a bad thing. They're most likely coming from a panel of respondents (i.e. a bunch of email addresses), and it would naive to think that parties with a vested interest in the result wouldn't diddle the system a little. Similarly, mental asterisks for any news show text poll or web poll where the results are dictated by a similar thinking audience.
Ultimately, as much as I hate cold-calling, you do get a far more representative sample that way even if it annoys the bejesus out of everyone.
But to be honest, any poll of the general public that involves the internet is usually given a little asterisk in my head, simply because it involves a self-selecting sample and that's a bad thing. They're most likely coming from a panel of respondents (i.e. a bunch of email addresses), and it would naive to think that parties with a vested interest in the result wouldn't diddle the system a little. Similarly, mental asterisks for any news show text poll or web poll where the results are dictated by a similar thinking audience.
Ultimately, as much as I hate cold-calling, you do get a far more representative sample that way even if it annoys the bejesus out of everyone.