Why are we at Orange?

[Magoo]

We've got to the stage where the modellers can't seem to agree on what's to come over the next few weeks, so the better move in the long-run is just to play it cautiously.

Think about weather forecasting. Forecasts always err on the side of caution. It's in the best interests of meteorologists to forecast the crappier weather even if there's less likelihood of it playing out. If they don't, and the weather turns, then unprepared people are at a greater risk of harm/getting wet and/or blown away. People will get grumpy, but way less grumpy than if they predict rain and it turns out to be sunny all day.

With Covid, the Powers-That-Be have to be cautious. You don't win plaudits for rolling dice in a pandemic.

we can get a pretty good idea from other countries tho?